A strong EURO is good for the United States and other nations who trade with nations in the Eurozone, but such advantages could soon come to an end. Consider if you well the ‘economic hit’ that came with Brexit to the Eurozone? Consider the slow motion train wreck that continues – remember the Greek Tragedy and bailout was a temporary fix, and other nations are not out of the woods by any means. Recently, there was a referendum in Italy, and the Italian banks are on the verge of the abyss. None of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) of Europe are home free yet.
Let’s look back a couple of years and see this currency trap, to better understand this prediction of the Dollar/EURO parity:
1.) Wall Street Journal, February 10, 2015, “All Isn’t Quiet on the Euro Front,” by Richard Barley
2.) CNBC Segment about US Dollar/Euro Parity by the End of the Year (2015)
3.) Wall Street Journal, February 10, 2015, “Politics Pushes Turkish Lira to Record Low – Investors Fear the Central Bank, Amid Concerns About Economic Growth, Will Be Pressured Into Cutting Interest Rates,” by Chiara Albanese and Emre Peker
It turns out on February 9, 2015 the Euro was trading at $1.13 down from $1.40 near the end of Q3 of 2014. In the third article, it makes me ask; If a Central Bank prints money, it crushes the currency – and if a government stops borrowing and spending slower growth – the currency is crushed?” Well, what the hell, it’s easy for politicians to crush a currency in order to get a trade advantage.
In late December of 2016 David Montgomery, a financial and economic analyst, who has a blog and column on Seeking Alpha noted in his piece: “The Dollar And Euro: Moving To Parity And Beyond,” and stated the following:
“For years, currency watchers have predicted the U.S. dollar and euro will trade at parity. The two currencies are almost at that level, but the euro could go even lower in 2017. Central bank policies and U.S. and EU politics are driving the currencies valuations and the trends in place are likely to continue.”
Now then, as of today, right now December 23, 2016 the dollar is $1.04 to One Euro, essentially we have parity, but with a new Trump Administration promising to put forth Infrastructure Stimulus to the tune of 100’s of billions of dollars, beef up the military, lower corporate taxes and reduce regulation to kick-start our real growth engine – small business. We are going to see an even stronger dollar and even the FED sees it with their serious moves to slow down a very fast economic growth uptick.
Meanwhile, the EU is in some serious trouble right now. Many countries in the EU want to go back to their old currency, even if most of them know they can’t. The Eurozone has some tough times ahead, and that will lead to more stimulus, bailouts, and decrease of their currency value. Please consider all this.